Atmospheric Pattern Wavenumber-5 Key To Forecasting Heatwaves

This map of air flow a few miles above ground level in the Northern Hemisphere shows the type of wavenumber-5 pattern associated with US drought. This pattern includes alternating troughs (blue contours) and ridges (red contours), with an "H" symbol (for high pressure) shown at the center of each of the five ridges. High pressure tends to cause sinking air and suppress precipitation, which can allow a heat wave to develop and intensify over land areas.
Credit: Image courtesy Haiyan Teng

Based on historical weather data, scientists have identified an atmospheric pattern called Wavenumber-5 as a factor that could lead to forecasting a heatwave fifteen to twenty days before it happens.

An area experiencing unusual and excessive hot weather for a prolonged period of time is known to be going through a weather pattern called a heat wave. It is a phenomenon where the temperature for the period is much higher than what the climate for that area should be. Since a heat wave is relative to the area and its normal climate, the same temperature can be considered normal for people living in a hotter climate.

Wavenumber-5 is a pattern or sequence of five high-pressure systems and five low-pressure systems alternating with each other to form a circle around the northern midlatitudes, several miles above the surface of the Earth (see image on the left).

Heat waves pose environmental and health risks which could lead to drought, crop failures and hyperthermia. Hyperthermia is a condition where the person has an elevated body temperature which happens when the body produces or absorbs more heat than it dissipates

The 2003 heatwave in Europe, the hottest since 1540, was responsible for more than 70,000 deaths (mostly the elderly) and caused crop drought and forest fires throughout the southern regions. France was the hardest hit with around 14,000 deaths.

By being able to forecast a heatwave weeks in advance, measures can be undertaken to minimize the health and environmental hazards it can cause.

Climate During the Pliocene Period May Help Improve Climate Change Predictions

Researchers are looking back to climate conditions during the Pliocene Period, 4 to 5 million years ago, to develop a more improved model in predicting future climate change.

The climate during the Pliocene period was similar to the climate of modern times. It was cooler, drier and also experienced seasons just as today. The temperature then was around 2-3°C higher than today and sea level was 25 meters higher. Ocean temperature

The warm period during the mid-Pliocene epoch can be considered as a model of future climate today. The heat from the sun, geography and CO2 levels were similar to what it is now.

By studying the climate during the Pliocene period, researchers are hoping to find previously unknown mechanisms that may give insight on how climate reacts to certain conditions.

Weekend Info: Climate Change Infographic

An infographic on climate change shows the dangers it brings as well as the effect it has on the world today.

Climate change and global warming have been used interchangeably. Although they seem to refer to the same thing, they technically are different. Global warming refers to the rise in average temperature near the Earth's surface while climate change refers to any significant change in climate over a long period of time.

Climate change addresses significant and long term changes in climate factors which include but not limited to temperature, precipitation, or wind patterns.

Major scientific organizations such as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) agree that climate change is happening and that man is a major contributor to it. In 2010, the National Research Council concluded that "Climate change is occurring, is very likely caused by human activities, and poses significant risks for a broad range of human and natural systems".

The infographic communicates the dangers that climate change can bring as well as changes that are already happening because of it.

Hydrological Research Team Find That Parched and Dry Soil Trigger Afternoon Rain Storms

According to a team of scientists from countries such as UK, Holland, Austria and France, parched and dry soil are more likely to trigger afternoon storms. The team examined the movement, distribution, and quality of water processes across six continents. Their hydrological study is published in the scientific journal, Nature.

The work of the team may give more insight into the workings of the environment in terms of rain and droughts. These may then be used to construct better and more precise climate models to track the Earth's existing climate cycle.

Climate is the weather condition of an area averaged over a period of time (usually in years). The difference between weather and climate is that weather is the condition of the area in that specified time. Aside from measuring devices such as barometers, weather satellites provide images and data on a global scale on how the present condition of the Earth's climate.

Using satellite imagery, the research team noticed that rain clouds developed more in places where the ground is dry. They scientists examined the images which track the development of storm clouds across the globe and matched up where new storms appeared alongside images of how wet the ground was.

Destruction of Tropical Forest May Result In 21% Decrease of Annual Rainfall

An area of the Amazon Rainforest in Brazil. The tropical rainforests of South America contain the largest diversity of species on Earth.
Credit: Wikipedia/Catedral Verde - Floresta Amazonica

A tropical rainforest is a forest that is situated within the latitudes 28 degrees north or south of the equator. The location roughly falls in Asian countries, Australia, Africa, South and Central America, Mexico and on islands in the Pacific, Caribbean, and Indian Ocean.

Tropical rain forests have higher than average temperatures (18°C or 64°F) and as the name suggests, high amounts of rainfall. Average rainfall is around 175 cm (69 in) and 200 cm (79 in) but can exceed up to 1,000 cm (390 in).

50% of all living animals and plants reside in rainforests. More than 60% of flowering plants can be found within them. Rainforests contain so much life in it that a hectare of it may contain 2,000 different species of insect, up to 807 trees of 313 species and 1,500 species of higher plants.

Tropical rainforests also have a significant impact in the world of medicine since more than 25% of natural medicine comes from them. It is possible that undiscovered cures for diseases are still waiting to be found in rainforests.

Because of the continued increase of human population and activity, these ecosystems are threatened. Aside from factors such as climate change and natural disasters, human destruction of these forests for logging and agricultural purposes are taking its toll. Areas covered by rainforests are rapidly shrinking because of it.

Loss of tropical forests reduces rain

Deforestation can have a significant effect on tropical rainfall, new research confirms. The findings have potentially devastating impacts for people living in and near the Amazon and Congo forests.

A team from the University of Leeds and the NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology found that for the majority of the Earth's tropical land surface, air passing over extensive forests produces at least twice as much rain as air passing over little vegetation. In some cases these forests increased rainfall thousands of kilometres away.

By combining observational data with predictions of future deforestation, the researchers estimate that destruction of tropical forests would reduce rain across the Amazon basin by up to a fifth (21 per cent) in the dry season by 2050. The study is published today in Nature.

Lead author Dr Dominick Spracklen from the School of Earth and Environment at the University of Leeds said: "We were surprised to find that this effect occurs strongly across more than half of the tropics. We found that the Amazon and Congo forests maintain rainfall over the periphery of the forest basins - regions where large numbers of people live and rely on rainfall for their livelihoods.

"Our study implies that deforestation of the Amazon and Congo forests could have catastrophic consequences for the people living thousands of kilometres away in surrounding countries."

California Coastal Planners Preparing for Climate Change

Climate Change and Global Warming are two terms that have been often used interchangeably.

Global warming denotes that only rising temperatures of the planet matters. According to The National Academy of Sciences, the phrase "climate change" is preferred to do away with the confusion. They note that "the phrase 'climate change' is growing in preferred use to 'global warming' because it helps convey that there are [other] changes in addition to rising temperatures."

Climate change is a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. There are many factors that affect climate change. These are:

• Natural factors such as the solar rays from the Sun, and changes in the Earth's orbit.
• Natural processes such as ocean circulation
• Human Activities

Human activities are varied. It can cover the burning of fossil fuels that affect the Earth's atmosphere. It also applies to deforestation that affect the land surface of the planet. Human activities that impact climate change are the most controllable.

Is California preparing for climate change?

A majority of California's coastal planners and resource managers now view the threats from climate change as sufficiently likely that practical steps on the ground need to be taken to protect against growing threats, according to results from a new survey published by Stanford University's Center for Ocean Solutions (COS) and the California Sea Grant.

Survey respondents acknowledge the need to prepare for changes along the coast that might result from rising sea levels and other impacts, such as more floods, loss of beach access, coastal erosion and potential damage to transportation infrastructure, including highways, roads and ports.

The new survey – an update on a similar one conducted six years ago – shows a strong uptick in California coastal professionals' attention to preparing and planning for climate change. Results reveal that managers are ready and willing to develop adaptation strategies, despite tighter belts in most local and state agencies in recent years. But lack of money to prepare and implement plans, insufficient staff and lack of technical know-how are significant challenges.